As political tension slowly builds ahead of Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, speculations are rife about a possible alliance between former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and former Kaduna State Governor Nasir El-Rufai to form a new political party capable of challenging President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s hold on power.
While no formal announcement has been made, insiders within Nigeria’s political elite suggest that discreet meetings have been taking place across Abuja and northern Nigeria between high-profile political actors disillusioned with the current state of the major parties — the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).
According to multiple political sources, the idea being floated is not just a merger or defection, but the birth of a new political movement — one that would appeal to both southern and northern blocs, ride on the wave of economic frustrations, and present itself as a “national rescue agenda.”
A Strategic Realignment?
Atiku Abubakar, 2023 PDP presidential candidate and a veteran of several political cycles, is believed to be in consultations with top political stakeholders on the viability of a third force. Meanwhile, El-Rufai — once a key figure in APC’s formation and governance structure — has reportedly grown distant from President Tinubu’s camp following policy disagreements and alleged marginalization.
Both men, political opposites in style but united by ambition and national appeal, could create a formidable coalition if they agree on a unified direction.
Analysts Speak
Political analyst Dr. Hajara Suleiman of the Centre for Democratic Development says the idea of a third force is not far-fetched.
“Nigeria is currently facing deepening economic hardship, security concerns, and party fatigue. If Atiku and El-Rufai successfully present a well-structured and inclusive party, they could draw a significant portion of dissatisfied voters from both APC and PDP,” she noted.
However, she added that “personal egos and regional balancing will be the greatest test for any such alliance,” as reported by Daily Trust.
APC Responds
A senior APC chieftain who spoke under condition of anonymity to Daily Trust dismissed the reports as “wishful thinking,” stating that President Tinubu remains “firmly in control” of the political machinery across most parts of the country.
“They tried to unseat him in 2023 and failed. The President is building projects, stabilizing the economy, and investing in infrastructure. Nigerians know who’s working,” he said.
PDP’s Silence Fuels Speculation
The PDP leadership has so far remained silent on the matter, further fueling the belief that something is brewing behind the scenes. With internal divisions still unresolved, especially over the zoning debate and national chairmanship, the party risks losing influential figures like Atiku to a new movement.
2027: Too Early or Already in Motion?
With the 2027 elections over two years away, many observers argue it is still too early for alignments to take definite shape. But if history is any guide, Nigeria’s political terrain is known for its late-but-decisive shakeups. Recall how the APC itself was birthed just two years before it unseated an incumbent in 2015.
If Atiku and El-Rufai — both skilled in political navigation — can overcome ideological and personality differences, they could indeed mount a serious challenge in 2027.
Until then, Nigeria watches, waits, and speculates.
