Nigeria is expected to move up in Africa’s economic ranking by 2026, according to new projections released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Figures contained in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook (October 2025 edition), obtained through the organisation’s datamapper, indicate that Nigeria held the position of Africa’s fourth-largest economy in 2025. The country’s gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices was estimated at about $285 billion.
The data placed Nigeria behind South Africa, Egypt and Algeria. South Africa led the continent with a GDP valued at roughly $426 billion. Egypt followed with $349 billion, while Algeria occupied the third position with $288 billion.
However, the IMF anticipates a shift in rankings in 2026. The Fund projects that Nigeria will surpass Algeria as economic performance improves. The expected recovery is linked to increased oil output, better foreign exchange availability and the effects of ongoing economic reforms.
Based on the projections, Nigeria’s GDP could rise to about $334 billion in 2026. Algeria’s economy is forecast at $284 billion within the same period. This would place Nigeria behind South Africa, projected at $443 billion, and Egypt at $399 billion.
The IMF noted that recent policy measures are likely to support growth over the medium term. These include the removal of petrol subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate and fiscal policy adjustments. The reforms may also come with short-term inflationary strain.
Nigeria’s economic standing has fluctuated in recent years. Currency devaluations, GDP rebasing and wider macroeconomic challenges across major African economies have influenced the shifts.
In a related update issued on January 19, the IMF raised its forecast for Nigeria’s 2026 economic growth rate to 4.4 percent. The new figure marked an increase from its earlier projection of 4.2 percent.
The World Bank also revised its outlook. On January 13, the institution increased its growth projection for Nigeria in 2026 to 4.4 percent, up from the 3.7 percent estimate released in June 2025.
The latest forecasts signal cautious optimism about Nigeria’s economic trajectory as reforms and external factors shape performance in the coming years.
