The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has issued a fresh warning about the fragility of Nigeria’s food system, citing conflict, climate shocks, and economic pressures as major threats to household stability. Despite Nigeria’s vast agricultural potential, the organisation says these challenges are deepening poverty and straining social cohesion.
Speaking at the 2026 Vanguard Economic Discourse in Lagos, FAO Country Director Hussein Gadain stressed that shocks within the agricultural sector ripple across livelihoods, nutrition, and national stability. He noted that both rural and urban communities are increasingly vulnerable.
Gadain underscored agriculture’s importance beyond its contribution to gross domestic product. The sector accounts for about 23 percent of Nigeria’s economy and remains the primary source of livelihood for most citizens. More than 70 percent of the population depends on agriculture in some form, with roughly 40 million households engaged in farming activities.
He described agriculture as essential to stabilising Nigeria’s economy, warning that neglecting the sector could worsen social and economic pressures.
Nigeria’s agricultural outlook, according to Gadain, is shaped by both opportunity and urgency. The country has about 92 million hectares of land, with 70 million hectares suitable for farming and 36 million hectares classified as arable. These resources provide a strong foundation for growth.
However, rapid population growth—currently estimated at 2.1 percent annually—is intensifying demand for food, jobs, and natural resources. This demographic pressure adds urgency to the need for reforms and investment in agriculture.
Insecurity in farming communities, rising input costs, and global supply chain disruptions are compounding difficulties for smallholder farmers. Gadain explained that climate shocks and conflict are particularly damaging, reducing productivity and increasing risks for consumers.
He highlighted Nigeria’s agricultural trade imbalance as another critical issue. Between 2016 and 2019, imports of agricultural products reached N3.35 trillion, nearly four times higher than exports valued at N803 billion. This gap reflects rising demand and missed opportunities for local value addition.
While commodities such as sesame, cashew, and cocoa dominate exports, staples like wheat continue to drive imports. Gadain argued that this imbalance underscores the need to strengthen domestic production and competitiveness.
Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s production capacity remains significant. Recent figures show harvests of about 17.3 million metric tons of maize and 30 million metric tons of rice in a single cycle. The country also leads globally in cassava and yam output.
These achievements, Gadain said, highlight the scale of opportunity if productivity and value chains are improved. He pointed to FAO’s work across Nigerian states, noting that targeted investments have delivered rapid and transformative results.
Unlocking Nigeria’s agricultural potential will require deliberate action to address structural constraints. Gadain emphasized that reforms must focus on boosting productivity, improving value chains, and reducing reliance on imports.
He warned that without sustained efforts, pressures on Nigeria’s food system could deepen, with consequences for economic stability and social welfare. “The rebound of the agriculture sector is not simply a sectoral ambition; it is a national economic and social imperative,” he said.
FAO’s warning reflects the dual reality of Nigeria’s agricultural sector: vast potential coupled with mounting risks. With abundant land and strong production capacity, the country has the resources to feed its population and strengthen its economy. Yet insecurity, climate shocks, and economic pressures continue to undermine progress.
The message from FAO is clear. Nigeria must act decisively to stabilize its food system, reduce import dependence, and harness its agricultural strengths. Failure to do so could deepen poverty and instability, while success could transform agriculture into a driver of national resilience and growth.
